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Outlook from Eric W. Johnston, CFP®

The Year Ahead - Initial survey reports for 2012 show that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the 30th consecutive month in January and the downturn in Eurozone manufacturing may be easing. Manufacturing
outside the U.S. slowed materially toward the end of 2011, but as the effects of inventory adjustments and flooding in Thailand fade, global manufacturing has picked back up, expanding for the second consecutive month in January. Weakness in European final sales will likely continue to be a drag on the region's output, but the resiliency seen elsewhere around the world, and the U.S. in particular, bode well for continued global economic growth in the year ahead. Source: Quote from JP Morgan

How is Your Investing Comfort Level? Over the past few weeks I've discussed and reviewed strong corporations and corporate earnings growth, despite global challenges in the economy.  American Funds put together a great piece that illustrates this tug of war. When retirement planning, economic challenges affect our account values every day. This article can lead to a greater understanding of the markets and maybe even a greater comfort level in our long-term strategies. Click here to download.

10/3/2011 A Case for Optimism?  Clearly this year is another volatile year in the stock market and  portfolio values.  I believe it is worth looking at prior years for some insight and what we may expect. Since 1980 the markets have finished with positive returns 24 out of 31 years.  That is quite a few positive years. During that time the average intra-year market drop was 14.3%.  (Source JP Morgan) These market corrections happen often and yet 24 of those 31 years still ended up positive. While the corrections each time are difficult to experience, it also seems more often than not the markets recover and sometimes substantially following the corrections.  With significant risks still in the economy, I still recommend keeping our current allocation.  As with many years in the past, combined with the great health of U.S. corporations, we could still see growth by year end. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Always keep in mind your long term objectives. When you do that, the short term volatility seems less important.  As always, please call or write with any questions on how your portfolio is positioned.

9/22/2011  While there has been very little news today regarding the status of the corporations we invest in, the Federal Reserve announced this week that they would implement more economic stimulus.  The stock market is not responding well to this news. As I write this the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 400 points.  While we could discuss a number of factors that may cause this to happen, I believe at the center of the reason is uncertainty.  Investors are not certain if the stimulus packages are enough. Investors are not certain that our government will be able to create an environment that will create new jobs and increase the existing growth of our economy.  Investors are not certain that European governments will be able to create a solution for their sovereign debt issues. These factors will play a large part in the future growth and health of our economy and therefore future profits and stock prices of stock corporations. As such, the current price that investors will pay for stocks is lower today. I would add "appropriately". However, the U.S. historically has found solutions out of these tough business environments. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, once the uncertainty is reduced the markets could recover quickly. Even the last eight weeks there are good examples of the market rebounding in short order. IF we had sky high interest rates, declining GDP, cash-strapped corporations, and banks with no reserves,  there may be a stronger cause for concern.  We don't have this situation. We have low interest rates, cash-rich corporations, low inflation, and banks with massive reserves historically speaking.  We await a good solution for sovereign debt in Europe. We await an approved jobs plan by our government.  Comment on this outlook by clicking here.